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双11救不了安卓手机

不知道你是否跟我有同感,就是电商大促的味道一年比一年淡了

不知道你是否跟我有同感,就是电商大促的味道一年比一年淡了。其实不光是你我,今年的双11,对于智能手机厂商们来说,同样略显“平淡”,甚至有点“惨淡”。 

有分析师告诉智东西, 双11安卓手机几乎“全军覆没”,大部分品牌成交额、销量同比双双下降, 但令人稍感意外的是, 华为竟然是一众安卓厂商中唯一大幅增长的, 甚至有供应链消息称,华为还在不停追加订单。 

一位知情人士更是告诉智东西, 华为现在是“有货就卖”。 

就在前两天,Strategy Analytics的一份报告证实了这位分析师的说法,今年中国双11线上智能手机销量同比下降35%,甚至 创下了疫情三年来的新低,总共卖出了900万部手机。 

▲2020-2022中国双11期间智能手机销量情况,单位:百万部,来源:Strategy Analytics

根据SA的报告, 苹果一个人占了将近7成销售额, 小米第二,占比13%,华为第三,占比就已经低至5%。而销量方面,小米的占比来到了31%,荣耀占比8%,苹果依然以39%的份额坐在第一的位置。 

▲2022年中国双11期间智能手机销售额、销量占比,来源:Strategy Analytics

本来每年的618、双11电商大促,都是手机厂商们冲销量的关键时节,而今年的双11对于身处消费电子严冬中的他们来说,更应是如此。 

但理想很丰满,现实很骨感。虽然前些日子家家都发布了战报,战报上的各种“冠军”、“第一”、“TOP”也看的人眼花缭乱,但深入到背后,真正看到销售数据,我们才发现,这个双11,并没有真正给手机厂商们“回口大血”。 

相反,在智东西与 头部手机厂商员工、京东知情人士、手机渠道商 等多位行业人士交流后,我们发现 不少厂商反而被大促“折磨”得有些心力交瘁,苦不堪言 手机厂商们的无奈,也是有苦说不出。 

手机市场何时才能真正回暖?似乎没有人能给出准确答案。 

01 . 

手机走进七年最低谷,年底最后一冲未能如愿 

众所周知,这一年多以来,以智能手机为代表的消费电子市场正在经历一场十年难遇,甚至是前所未有“严冬”。 

大型科技公司频频裁员、股价暴跌、预算收紧、手机出货量连续创下新低。根据CINNO最新数据,2022年三季度国内市场手机销量同比下降20.8%,创下2015年以来最差三季度销量。 

▲2022年三季度中国大陆智能手机市场销量,来源:CINNO

苹果尚且可以凭借iPhone 14系列保证三季度的漂亮数据,安卓手机厂商们又能依靠什么? 

虽然业内早在双11开始之前就对这次的销量不佳有所预期,但毕竟这是今年最后一个销售爆发节点了, 厂商们是箭在弦上,不得不发。 

在双11预售阶段,各家手机厂商都在积极备战,纷纷秀出自己的双11大促“战略”,小米这边甩出11亿元补贴,OPPO这边则是打出10亿补贴的口号。 

除了各种主力机型的降价补贴,iQOO、一加、Redmi等品牌还“卡点发布”了几款“大促机型”。这些机型价位普遍在1000元到2000元之间,正是出货的主力机型。 

一位头部手机厂商人士告诉智东西,尽管大家日子都不好过,但其实从降价力度来看, 今年智能手机品类的促销力度并不小,一些品牌还要大于往年。 

小米、OPPO、realme、vivo、iQOO、荣耀等品牌的热门型号手机降价幅度都在300-500元左右,一些个别机型,例如搭载联发科天玑9000+的小米12S Pro天玑版降价幅度则达到了1000元,甚至叠加优惠券后的价格来到了2600元左右, 相比首发时的价格,降幅超过三分之一。 

除了手机,厂商们在自家IoT产品线上做起促销来也是毫不手软,小米、荣耀的65英寸电视在双11的价格都来到了2000元左右,而OPPO的55英寸电视更是做到了1499元。这些电视产品的降价幅度甚至超过了1000元。 

realme一款399元的TWS耳机直接降价了120元,降价接近三分之一;而一款荣耀最新的MagicBook系列笔记本,降价幅度达到了800元。 

一位接近荣耀人士告诉智东西,其实 在整个消费市场疲软的大环境下,IoT产品的销售受影响更为明显, 很多长尾的IoT产品都面临着较高的库存压力,因此促销力度也会更大。 

相比之下,今年手机品类降价力度虽然也不减往年,但降幅基本在预期范围之内。不过值得注意的是,京东和天猫等平台都会针对平台会员发放全品类大额优惠券,届时优惠相互叠加,实际到手价往往还会进一步下探。 

虽然促销力度有了,但实际销售反馈却略显“惨淡”。 

小米OV等手机厂商们都在官方平台略显“低调”的公布了自己的双11战报,翻遍战报,我们能够看到明确成交额的仅有小米一家。OPPO、vivo以及他们的子品牌则更多秀出的是一些同比增长数字,而这些数字所出的统计维度也比较细分。 

对比去年,小米全渠道累计支付金额下降了12%左右,但实际上,小米已经是国产安卓手机厂商中卖的最多的了,其他品牌的情况,可想而知。 

▲左:2022年双11,右:2021年双11

回到其他品牌的战报,各种“限定”下的“第一”、“冠军”、“TOP1”、“TOP2”和漂亮的同比增长数字自然是战报的重点,但具体来看限定词,往往都比较细分。 

在战报中,我们看到的只有排名,或者某个细分领域的成绩,很难看到手机本身的成交额和销量数据。当然,在市场大环境低迷的背景下,更多厂商选择低调也是可以理解的。 

值得注意的是,双11战报发布后,一般品牌都会主动进行宣传,但今年各家宣传的力度显然要弱了许多,在主流媒体平台上鲜有看到。 

如果不是自己手动翻开品牌官方平台输入“双11”关键字,我甚至很难找到他们的具体战报。 

在与一位京东知情人士沟通后我了解到,这次 大家普遍“低调”的原因,很明显就是因为“卖的并不好”, 就她了解到的情况来看, 不少品牌的同比都是负的,而各家晒出的战报数据维度可能比较“讨巧”。 

同样的,一位手机行业从业多年的经销商告诉智东西,他自己下属负责的几个手机品牌卖的都“一般般”,本身预期就不高,最后实际结果也如他们所预料的。 

“即使力度做的不小,反馈还是比较一般,我这边也就 中低端跑量的机型还能卖卖。 ”这位经销商比较无奈地告诉我。 

在搜集战报的过程中,我发现华为和荣耀并没有在官微上发布相关信息,不过从前面的数据中我们也能看到,华为反而是国产手机品牌中表现比较好的,成交额仅次于苹果和小米。 

要知道, 华为这是在只能卖4G手机的情况下实现的。 

▲华为京东自营旗舰店中排在靠前位置展示的部分手机产品

不过需要注意的是,去年同期,华为并没有主力新品推出,这次双11借助Mate50系列带起的势头冲一波,也是意料之中的操作,只能说华为这次是将之前的“坑”填上了一些。 

不论如何, 在这波双11手机大战中,似乎没有谁是真正的赢家。 

02 . 

双11成玩一场“表演”,厂商们早已身不由己 

有人说, 双11的“表面火爆”,是手机厂商们的一场集体表演。 

在找到多家手机厂商人士,了解到双11背后更多不为人知的一面后,我们发现,他们的表演颇有些 被逼无奈、身不由己 的感觉。 

一位荣耀知情人士告诉智东西,其实每年大家对于双11的重视程度都是很高的,力度也都不会低,今年双11有很多产品都是“击穿底价”,力度比往年还大。但是目前的情况就是,营销预算收缩的很厉害,大促的投入是有明显减少的。 

这位知情人透露,如果说 往年他们参加京东招商的预算有四五百万元,那么今年则一分钱都没有。 当然,他的描述可能有一定夸张成分。 

虽然营销预算少了,但是销售任务目标却一点没少。据了解,他们内部对此次双11定下的销售目标相较去年小幅增长,由于没有太多营销费用的支持,只能更多采用“价格战”的方式来做销售。 

打价格对于所有厂商来说,都是不希望看到的,打价格会给利润增加不小的压力,而今年几乎所有手机厂商都将利润看的非常重。 

这位知情人士也道出了一个很无奈的现实: “如果大家都在打价格,你不跟,就会慢慢丢掉市场,你跟了,就会守不住利润。” 

回顾手机厂商们近来发布的“大促机型”,几乎都没有在核心硬件上进行大幅升级,基本是“小修小补”,核心就是“打价格”。 

既要销售、又要利润,还没钱做营销。摆在厂商们面前的,就是这样一道难题。 谁也不想陷入一味的价格战,但回过头来,已是“身不由己”。 

一位接近小米人士告诉智东西,小米这次双11肯定是有着冲销量的准备的,手机和IoT产品线降价力度都比较大,而且促联合电商平台做的各类形式的销活动也不少。 

在市场整体表现一般的情况下,取得现在这个成绩,他认为是在意料之中。 

根据Canalys最新数据,今年三季度,小米出货量是前五名中唯一一个没有突破千万的,而CINNO的数据显示,小米9月销量同下降幅度超过了36%,情况不容乐观。 

但这次双11,从销售额和销量来看,小米的确是国产手机品牌中表现最好的一个。 

一位京东知情人士称,小米历来在大促节点的爆发力都是不错的,最终 小米成交额仅次于苹果,也证明了这一点。 

需要注意的是,从年初开始,小米内部就在进行新一轮的人事调整,有知情人士告诉智东西,小米在营销方面的预算是有所削减的,甚至连发布会的规模都有所收敛。 

在这样的背景下,小米内部对于“投入产出”更加看重,用简单的话来说就是,凡是花钱的地方,要听到声音、看到东西。 

此次双11,小米看似补贴力度达到了11亿元,但实际上,这种补贴更倾向于“让利”、“少赚一些”,而非从本就不多的净利润中掏出钱来做促销。 

小米和荣耀的情况并非个例,其实 国内所有智能手机厂商都在面临同样的问题:预算减少,但是还要销量,不仅要销量,还要保利润。 

既然家家的手机都卖不动,那么IoT业务是否好于手机呢?答案显然是否定的。 

一位头部手机厂商人士告诉智东西, 现在电视、平板这些品类的“内卷”程度,甚至还要超过手机。 

他透露,现在很多IoT产品都是“赔钱”在做,由于预算减少,他们只能寄希望于京东、天猫、拼多多这样的平台能够给予一定的补贴,否则仅凭品牌自己,已经无力再做太低的价格。 

“55英寸、65英寸的大电视做到了一千多元、两千多元,放在过去,这根本无法想象。” 

这位知情人士进一步提到,相比于手机,像TWS耳机、智能手表这些可穿戴设备、路由器这些“长尾”产品,清库存的压力是很大的,甚至很多2到3年前的产品,至今仍有积压。如果在双11看到这些产品促销力度很大,也就可以理解了。 

03 . 

旺季不旺,手机市场的前路在哪里? 

深入双11火爆背后,我们看到的更多是手机厂商们“笑脸相迎”背后的无奈,在这场席卷整个消费电子行业的严冬之下,竭尽所能,给消费者一个看起来足够“香”的价格,或许已经是他们为数不多能够做到的了。 

往年的9月都是历来的手机销售旺季,但 今年却是“旺季不旺”, 9月、10月的手机市场并没有明显回暖,整个三季度销量创下了近7年以来的最差三季度销量。 

根据CINNO数据,苹果9月销量达到了460万部,成为国内市场第一,同比增长26.8%、环比增长68.4%,也是前五品牌中唯一一个实现正增长的。 

当然,这一方面要归功于iPhone 14系列新品的发布,虽然iPhone 14标准版和iPhone 14 Plus销量不佳,但iPhone 14 Pro以及Pro Max直到发布一个月后还依然火爆。 

苹果有iPhone 14打破颓势,安卓阵营则直接有些“躺平”的意味。 

2022年三季度,中国市场手机销量同比下降20.8%,TOP5中所有国产手机品牌中,OPPO、vivo、小米的降幅均超过了30%,上半年还维持正增长的荣耀,同比增长也来到了-15.5%。 

▲2022年三季度中国大陆智能手机市场销量,来源:CINNO

可以说, 中国安卓手机厂商的冬天,比苹果、三星要冷的多。 

CINNO预测,今年全年国内手机市场的销量可能不会超过2.7亿部,也将创下七年来最差纪录。 

有业内人士认为,现在整个经济大环境决定了大家“兜里没钱”,因此刺激效果就会比较有限。另外,在本来需求就已经下降的情况下,今年618又提前消费了一波,如今刚刚过去四个月,销售情况肯定不容乐观。 

手机厂商们虽然希望在这个节点上发布一些产品,来引起大家的消费欲望,但是在 缺乏硬核技术创新、缺乏用户体验上的显著改善的大背景下,用户换机周期被进一步拉长已经成为常态, 这次双11促销的实际作用,注定十分有限。 

不过随着最近 高通骁龙8二代、联发科天玑9200 两款新旗舰芯片的发布,年底手机市场还将迎来一波安卓旗舰机发布的小高潮,届时厂商们能否通过一些新的技术创新和体验升级刺激到略显“麻木”的市场,还有待后续观察。 

04 . 

结语:手机市场或遇最冷双11 

双11促销的火爆与需求的疲软,形成了尴尬而鲜明对比。目前看来,厂商们过的的确很艰难,利润下降、缺乏营销投入,但公司发展需要要增长、需要利润;另一边,消费者也很难,经济大环境不好、购买力下降,两厢结合,必然会造成了这种“畸形”的双11热况。 

如今,消费电子市场的不景气,已经逐渐传导到上游并产生明显影响,零部件甚至是半导体芯片供应商都开始缩减投资,即使是行业头部玩家也有不少难逃裁员命运。 

而手机市场,或许已经遇到了“最冷双11”,无论如何,市场严冬破局仍未看到希望,厂商们勒紧裤腰带过日子,仍会成为常态。