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市场份额2%,华为鸿蒙面临的难关

,对于鸿蒙2%市场份额的成绩,业内人士认为数据或许与实际有所出入,很可能只计算了手机份额,而没有包括

鸿蒙当前取得了进展,但还不算乐观。

日前,根据海外专业机构的调研数据显示,截止目前鸿蒙系统全球份额占比为2%,而安卓占据了81%的份额,iOS是18%。该数据引发了诸多讨论与争议。

根据这些最新的数据以及国内对鸿蒙的增长预期来看,鸿蒙当前取得了进展,但还不算乐观。

在国内,对于鸿蒙2%市场份额的成绩,业内人士认为数据或许与实际有所出入,很可能只计算了手机份额,而没有包括物联网设备。不少声音还是以吹捧为主,比如“外媒失算了”、“白封锁一场”、鸿蒙具备安卓、苹果 iOS 都不具备的能力,那就是互联万物的能力等等。但这其实还是一种自嗨。

华为作为后来者,在被制裁的情况下,能取得2%的市场份额,也不容易,但如何从2%向16%甚至20%的市场份额突破,鸿蒙面临着多个现实的难题。

首先是,鸿蒙是安卓套壳的质疑,这是品牌认知层面的障碍

从今天来看,鸿蒙是不是安卓套壳的质疑没有消停过。在去年12月底举行的2022中国(深圳)集成电路峰会上,王成录曾表示,鸿蒙系统不是安卓、iOS,也不是一个单设备操作系统,它拥有三个重要技术特点,分别为统一OS,弹性部署;硬件互助,资源共享;一次开发,多端部署。 并表示“中国在系统软件领域中,鸿蒙是唯一一个在技术架构领先了全球所有操作系统的”。

但业内对鸿蒙的质疑在于Harmony OS,是华为基于Open Harmony开发的商业化闭源发行版本,和Open Harmony的区别是使用了AOSP的一部分代码构建Android应用兼容层。

在不少人看来,它还是基于AOSP,和MIUI,Flyme,包括华为的EMUI,本质上没有区别。这与多年前阿里yunOS的操作类似,尤其是在某些版本的鸿蒙中出现了安卓系统的彩蛋,比如安卓特有的不兼容性。

事实上,Android和Android 开放源代码项目(AOSP)是两码事,开源社区的代码本来就是大家共用的,也并不是谷歌自家的,而是来自全世界的优秀开发人员贡献的,任何人都可以在这基础上二次开发,因为Linux内核开源协议要求使用了他们的部分也要开源,这些谷歌是没有所有权的,全球可用,谷歌也没有权限去打压。国内也有很多大公司开源了自己一些技术框架,国外也有人去使用。

而鸿蒙系统本身也在尽量删除相应的AOSP代码,毕竟现在的Android的已经臃肿不堪。此外,安卓系统采用的是“宏”内核,而鸿蒙系统采用的是“微”内核,即只提供操作系统最基本的少数核心功能与基础服务,比如多进程调度和多进程通信等,它拥有安全特性和低时延等特点。这也是它们之间最根本的区别。

当然,关于鸿蒙是不是安卓套壳的争议,短时间内,谁也说服不了谁。说到底,其实还是鸿蒙还不够强大。对此,鸿蒙一方面需要对外界的质疑有更清晰的回应与说法,向外界持续说明最新的进展,一方面还需要强大自身。

国内手机厂商不支持,缺少规模式、几何式增长的引擎

根据鸿蒙数据,2022年,搭载HarmonyOS的华为设备已达3.2亿,鸿蒙智联已有合作伙伴超2200个,产品发货量超2.5亿,鸿蒙生态开发者超200万人,尤其是包括美的、格力、方太、九阳、帅康、苏泊尔等大量家电品牌都已经加入,支付宝也已经加入鸿蒙。

但现实依然有让人无奈的一面,如今鸿蒙发布了4年,却至今没有一家国产手机厂商明确表示将会使用鸿蒙系统。手机是操作系统规模化与影响力增长的关键一环。

过去Android的壮大,有赖于三星与HTC两个大厂的支持,这两大厂商在智能手机前期庞大的出货量快速推高了Android的市场份额,随着后来国产手机的集体加入,Android一家独大趋势很快形成,彼时黑莓、Linux、MeeGo、Windows mobile、Windows phone都没有手机大厂的支持,前期冷启动艰难,快速被边缘化。

苹果iOS的壮大,也源于它作为封闭操作系统,iPhone本身就有庞大而稳定的出货量支撑,自成体系,iPhone出货量每年都在持续累积用户,也完整支撑了iOS的用户体量。

缺了手机大厂的支持,鸿蒙作为一个开放式操作系统,就缺少了规模式、几何式增长的驱动引擎。

这里面有深层的现实原因。

首先是从小米OV等大厂的生存角度而言,他们有自己的定制系统,OPPO有自己的ColorOS,vivo有Funtouch OS,小米有MIUI,魅族有Flyme,它们都有自己的IoT战略布局以及软件服务营收业务,更倾向将主动权掌握在自己手里。

而华为与其他厂商是竞争关系,鸿蒙与华为的品牌关联性太强,手机厂商的加入,可能也会担心会丧失自己的品牌印象与独特风格。

从自立门户(有自己的Android定制系统,在国内市场完全不受谷歌控制,可以做到软硬件营收一体化)到寄人篱下,在品牌溢价层面也完全被压制,它们也担心丧失了底层系统的自主性。

而手机厂商更担心海外市场的制裁因素,海外Android手机用的是谷歌统一的Andorid 原装系统,其手机常用软件与游戏都是在谷歌的GMS服务框架与应用程序商店上运行的,而搭载鸿蒙系统的话将无法获得谷歌的GMS授权,在海外市场没有谷歌GMS服务的Android智能手机基本上就等于功能手机。

因此,从综上种种利益因素来看,未来3~5年内,不排除有手机小厂愿意加入鸿蒙,但基本上是很难看到主流手机厂商有加入鸿蒙的可能性。

鸿蒙市场份额破局,华为手机的增长非常关键

如前所述,鸿蒙是物联网操作系统,已经扩展到了家电、智能家居、汽车等领域,但是手机是物联网时代的关键入口与设备,是如果一个操作系统,在万物互联时代,在手机这个关键硬件设备上缺位,其实是很难支撑它的影响力与规模化增长的。

因此,说到底,华为当前说服其他手机大厂加入是很艰难的,当前更多依赖家电厂商还是有一定的局限性。而对于华为而言,难点还在于海外市场,在海外市场要像国内一样说服大量家电厂商加入鸿蒙,存在文化与品牌认知与市场推广方面的难题。

鸿蒙因为出自华为之手,在国内有一定的影响力,但在国外的品牌认知非常有限,从当前来看,鸿蒙的布局重心还是在国内市场。

因此,鸿蒙市场份额破局的关键其实还是需要自有手机设备的出货来支撑,走苹果的路线,华为手机与鸿蒙系统的成长是相辅相成的,如果华为手机的体量、影响力与产品规模没有起来,鸿蒙的影响力与用户规模可能也将因此受限。

Canalys公司日前发布了对中国手机市场2022年度调研报告,报告显示2022年中国全年手机总销量达2.73亿部,前五名分别为苹果、小米、OPPO、荣耀、vivo,华为不在前五之列。

从当前来看,鸿蒙的发展壮大其实关键还是要看华为手机未来的增长与恢复程度,目前的情况还暂时不乐观。

海外市场的破局难度很大,却很关键

事实上,虽然当前的观点是,鸿蒙是物联网操作系统,是聚焦万物互联时代。而安卓与苹果更多是手机操作系统,但事实上,这是一种认知上的误区。

安卓与iOS也完全可以通过升级适配万物互联时代,而且从当前谷歌与苹果的布局来看,谷歌基于物联网操作系统的布局早在2019年I/O开发者大会上就已经布局,而Fuchsia开发团队最近提交了一份关于允许使用安卓的ADB工具管理Fuchsia设备的报告,降低将软件迁移至新系统的时间与技术成本。

苹果全家桶通过iOS生态的无缝连接,都能让它们自家的产品互联共享,获得流畅的跨屏体验,从苹果WWDC22来看,苹果正在把iOS、macOS、watchOS和 tvOS四大系统进一步整合,并加速Homekit平台的推进,发布基于HomeKit的应用程序Home,可以直接控制家中智能家居设备,众多家居配件厂商都宣布了对HomeKit的支持。

此外是苹果已经在布局AR操作系统,这本身也是物联网时代的一个关键发展方向。根据最新消息显示,苹果混合现实头显所运行的 realityOS 系统首个版本正在进行内部收尾工作,而且与该设备相关的新员工正在增加,或将在明年年初发布。操作系统之外,苹果AR头显硬件产品也已经进入关键阶段。

万物互联时代,就是互联网的下一阶段,它要连接尽可能多的生活硬件设备或者说物联网工业设备,综上来看,这个方向,无论是苹果还是谷歌都在推进,而苹果谷歌在全球市场的影响力、资源与市场份额要强大的多。

尤其是海外市场,其实是一个被微软、谷歌、苹果等巨头主导的市场,它们号召力更大、品牌认知更强,要从这些海外巨头手里抢食,比的是系统体验的优劣性、对开发者的友好程度以及生态建立的规模与速度以及品牌影响力,但因为制裁因素的存在,鸿蒙突围的难度非常大。

华为针对海外市场也发布了P50Pro、P50 Pocket的国际版,但由于5G芯片的受限,以及谷歌GMS服务的授权问题,华为手机在海外破局艰难,操作系统在海外的增长也不乐观。

总的来说,鸿蒙当前市场占有率为2%,活下来了,就有希望,但还没有到乐观的时候。

如何从市场份额上有质的突破,要有大厂的支持,也与华为手机的增长息息相关,以及鸿蒙如何将自身的品牌影响力与技术实力扩展、辐射到海外市场,也是关键一环,毕竟,操作系统的做大,从来都是要放眼全球市场,谋求在全球市场不断深耕,获取生存空间,才有可能真正强大。

结语

总的来说,鸿蒙市场份额2%,但还没有到乐观的时候,从市场份额来看,16%的市场份额是操作系统的生死线,因为操作系统是一个强者愈强的市场,且容易形成马太效应,一旦先行者形成规模效应,就如滚雪球般越滚越大。

而根据Strategy Analytics机构的预测,到2027年时,鸿蒙系统的份额将变成为0,而对于这种预测,该机构很可能还是基于操作系统的马太效应,对于这种预测,我们不应该嘲笑,对于鸿蒙来说,或许也应该有足够的重视与警惕,并思考破局办法。

如何跨越面临的这些现实难关,决定了它是否能成功的成为一款影响世界的操作系统,基于华为的实力与决心,我们依然对其抱有期待。