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扫码加钉群 十万创业者 与你为伴

Keep需要的新故事, 在元宇宙?

“虚拟偶像带健身课,这是要收割二次元吗?”

“虚拟偶像带健身课,这是要收割二次元吗?”

打卡完成周五的健身计划后,鸿彬在朋友圈默默吐槽了一句自己常用的健身软件Keep——作为国内知名度最高的互联网运动平台,Keep于十月中旬推出了名为“里里”的虚拟主播形象,官方口径称其为“国内首个虚拟运动博主”、“认知神经科学专业在读博士生”。

同Keep已有的真人KOL类似,“里里”出镜的内容同样是健身课程。

图/虚拟主播健身课

在鸿彬看来,二次元和健身圈子过去并未走得太近,但“虚拟偶像这两年确实也挺火,B站我记得多一些。”

截止发稿时,这位Keep虚拟博主已经推出了三节课。据AI蓝媒汇观察,“里里”的课程时长目前其他真人KOL并无太大差异,但内容明显更入门——动作简单,多为重复基础动作,清晰度同B站等视频平台较为成熟的主播相比,也有差距。

“看个新鲜吧,(我)可能还是比较习惯真人”,鸿彬补充道,“只是偶然刷到了,并没有关注,感觉吸引力不大。”

作为近两年“元宇宙”概念中较为重要的参与主体,虚拟形象、数字人产业同步分享了风口所带来的红利,洛天依、A-Soul等主播(团体)已经一纸二次元立绘,变成3D建模,成为演唱会、直播带货等领域的焦点。

虚拟主播自身,也从“人”变为IP——他们是屏幕前的二次元主播,也是三次元世界中周边产品的代言、封面。

此时Keep入局虚拟人、元宇宙,似乎有些姗姗来迟,究其本源,或许也并非二次元的吸引力,而是三次元的阻力——三次元世界中,营收和用户增长的阻力。

Keep为什么需要虚拟偶像?

与其说是需要虚拟偶像,倒不如说,Keep需要一个有吸引力且不太贵的KOL,最好还是独家。

而在2022年,与生俱来带有“元宇宙”这一吸金光环的虚拟偶像,刚好符合。

先说成本——对于Keep而言,虚拟偶像是个“划算”的选择。

“Keep的这个虚拟主播,从技术上看不算是最顶级的,”一家业务涉及虚拟人的元宇宙公司员工向AI蓝媒汇透露,“我说的技术,包括建模,立绘,动作捕捉,场景。如果制作一个同类型的虚拟人,我们公司的报价不会超过百万。”

“一个虚拟主播的制造,可以拆解成很多步骤。从原画、建模开始。人物建模+服装设计,写实风格的,渲染精度越高,细节越复杂越贵,范围大约在5-20万区间。最顶级的那种仿真的,可能会要到30万。”

除了制作虚拟人本体,后期输出内容,适配动作捕捉、声音合成等设备同样会产生一定的成本。

“至于动捕设备,适配这类不算特别复杂的动作,成本应该也在十万上下。动作捕捉替代方案就是摄像头捕捉。单个摄像头质量不同,一般在1000元以上。合成软件,如果需要找厂家定制,可能一年几万。Keep这个不涉及互动,只是录制,理论上应该没有AI互动软件成本。”

此外,据他透露,还有一些语音软件杂项,一般都是按照分钟收费的“5元/分钟吧,这种是做视频用的,不算贵。”

简单计算,这位健身虚拟主播的成本,显然远低于平台签约一位自带流量的真人KOL,所要付出的成本。

而Keep,显然需要这种“划算”——三年又三年,Keep收窄了亏损,但还是不赚钱。

从2022年中更新的招股书来看,Keep的账面营收已有了起色:

2020、2021年,Keep营收总额分别为11.07、16.19亿元人民币,21年同比增长46.3%。

今年一季度,Keep录得营收4.17亿元,和2021年同期3.03亿元相比,增长37.6%;未经审计利润为1.75亿元,毛利率42.0%,也高于去年同期的39.7%、2021全年的41.8%。

但整体上,仍在亏损:尽管相比于2021年同期的2.37亿元,Keep今年一季度净亏损已有好转,却还是亏了1.55亿元。

Keep方面曾明确表示,当前目标仍是“投资用户增长,预计在不久的将来将继续产生亏损净额及经营现金流出净额”——相比于盈利,Keep现阶段的重心仍在用户生态。但重用户生态建设并不代表Keep可以不计成本,毕竟还要上市。

Keep的选择同样是降本:仅销售及营销开支一项,22年Q1就由去年同期的2.48亿元降至1.47亿元,降幅高达40.7%。

另外的隐忧则来自用户生态本身,总量还在正增长,但增速已然放缓。

2019年至2021三年间,Keep平台月活从2177万增至3435万。其中,19-20年同比增速为36.6%,2021财年增速下降到15.6%。2022年上半年,Keep的MAU增长至3770万,但增速同比降至13%。对于一家仍在“扩张期”、重心在用户增量的而言,增速放缓显然称不上是一件值得高兴的事情。

对比国内虚拟主播浓度最高的视频平台B站,二季度大量虚拟主播被创造或加盟,活跃主播同比增长107%,直播间月付费人数同比增长近七成——虚拟主播或许已经成为“众望所归”。

用户吸引力维度上,Keep自然也不愿缺席。

虚拟偶像能帮到Keep多少?

短期内,一位带着元宇宙标签的虚拟主播,还没能为Keep带来直观的用户增量,仅以平台数据为例,当前Keep虚拟主播“里里”课程,单节最高参与人次为46.8万,远低于周六野帕梅拉等顶流博主百万至千万规模的流量。

而根据过往的播放量数据,在真人主播的横向比较中,对比抖音平台的刘畊宏和帕梅拉、周六野等健身顶流,Keep的流量池也显然是太小。

这些活跃在抖音、B站等平台泛内容平台的博主,健身内容的播放量长期维持在十万至百万量级,而翻看Keep平台近期的“跟练次数”,绝大部分远小于十万人次,且并非独家。

流量之争基本首轮落败,但Keep仍需要一位KOL。最理想的情况是,这位经济账划算,外观“赛博”的虚拟主播,能成为那个对的人。

现阶段,虚拟主播的用意显然不是分流平台内头部主播的流量,Keep需要解的是外困——周六野、帕梅拉这类头部主播,并非Keep独家签约。在Keep之外的泛内容视频领域,有着相似的博主、内容,和更大的用户基数。

Keep需要一个新的增长点,至少拉点外部的流量过来。

从事直播的行业的业内人士向AI蓝媒汇透露,“入驻和独播的成本,相差巨大。我是接触不到刘(畊宏)那种大主播的,但他们的签约费,估算的话底价就是百万级。而且,越是有流量的主播,往往越看重平台现有的用户数量,Keep想得到或者制造一个真人顶流,很难。”

简言之,在真人KOL领域,Keep已经不太可能卷得过这些顶流平台。平台缺乏决定性的吸引力,成本似乎也偏高。将健身的新故事——新增长点的主角,换成虚拟人,贴上元宇宙的标签,也就说得通了。

同样是主播,“虚拟人”是可制造的、稳定可控的、成本较低的那个选择。

至于未来能否将虚拟人打造成为元宇宙内的“周六野”、“帕梅拉”,健身圈子的“洛天依”、“嘉然”,还需看Keep的运营——以较低的成本探索新的增长点,深谙降本的Keep开始精打细算。

只是,互联网行业投入和产出在大多数情况下呈正相关的前提下,现阶段的虚拟偶像,还未必能让Keep破解用户增量的困局。